Can you bet on Trump?

As Biden rises, is it game over for Trump?

Today, lets go to American politics for some time because some really important pointers have come up.So, let's have a look what's happening in the world's oldest democracy as it goes for it's Presidential Polls in the 1st week of November, later this year. 

Now, why I'm talking about this at this moment of time is because of some recent and really important developments that have taken place in the US, most important being the increase of gap between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in opinion polls, in terms of Biden going ahead!

So, initially they were very close, then Donald Trump got some lead, then it was closed, but it was generally presumed that Trump will walk all over as "Biden is so low key" and then comes the bang!

                                   "Corona Virus Pandemic"

And, it was widely seen that Trump has mishandled it. So, Trump lost out, but then again with the protests against the "Killing of the Black African-American in Minnesota" and the violence aftermath helped Trump to get his base together, but this has not helped him enough and the gap between him and Biden has grown significantly. 

So, let's go to the ground itself and if you wanna have that ground look in America, you should have a look on the betting markets which, for the matter of fact is legal at the place and it's completely overground and you can check the odds online.

Now, opinion polls have been putting Biden ahead in the polls for quiet some time, but for the 1st time, odds in the betting market have shifted away form Trump. I, now give you some set of data for further analysis: 

1. Bet-fair:
   • 4th March: Trump(53.9%)   Biden(40.0%)
   • 13th April: Trump(50.0%)   Biden(42.0%)   
   • 4th June: Trump(43.0%)   Biden(47.3%)
   • 10th June: Trump(40.5%)   Biden(52.5%)
2. Odd's Checker:
   • Trump(40.51%)   Biden(52.6%)
   • Odd's on Biden winning: 6-1  
   • Odd's on Trump winning: 5-4
   • As Front-runner: Trump(+125)   Biden(-137)

   
   

As, I see this and read the approval ratings, which have fallen to an all time low for Donald Trump, Biden today looks stronger to defeat an incumbent than anybody, since Bill Clinton in 1992 against George H.W. Bush (Senior Bush). So, in last 28 years he looks the most likely to beat an incumbent. But, this was not the scenario till February, earlier this year. Both of them looked even-to-even and we all know, what a good campaigner Donald Trump is! But, two things have happened since then:

1. Bernie Sanders got out of the way, so that vote or popularity also shifted to Biden.
2. The Corona Virus pandemic, where Trump was widely seen as failing to handle to pandemic properly.

Now, if Trump is suffering losses, where are those losses coming from!

• For big time, most of the losses are coming from "Women" (Data suggests that the gap is of -25%, comparing that with 2014, where it was -14%) while, men still remain intact with Trump(+6%). 
• Again, the elites in America have been continuously voting for the Democrats while, the "White working class" has been voting for the Republicans, mostly in case of Donald Trump, but there's a dent there too (Compare today's lead of 21% amongst White Male, without college degree, to that of 31% in March earlier this year). So, the problem lies there, Trump's lead in his most cohesive base has declined. 
• If you have a look in amongst the "White College Graduate", Biden here takes a lead of 20% (against 16% earlier this year).
• Voters aged between 18-34, Biden there also has lead of 22% (Compare that to 6% in March, 2020

Now, in the 5 key swing states, i.e; 
North Carolina, Florida, Wisconsin, Arizona & Michigan, Biden is ahead. In fact, in 2016 Trump only won Michigan and Wisconsin by less than 1% point or less, which was too narrow and without which he couldn't have won the Presidential election.

Now, talking theoretically, Trump can still win the Presidential race, if he wins all Republican States and Arizona, where Biden currently leads only by a margin of 3%. But, going by the betting markets, Biden is substantively ahead. Again, if I talk of approval ratings, Trump's approval ratings has generally been in the range of 40-45%, and is one the most stable ratings of any US President in history, which shows that his base is intact, and that's very important. So, does Trump qualifies to be called 'Teflon-Don'? I think No, he is now destructible as he is now falling out in several key states. How Trump can swing it back! 

But, as you know Trump, he can come back from the impossible and Biden shouldn't start the celebration too early, he need to remember that when people come out to vote, they think more about their future and less about the past, and Biden is often seen lazy in his profile. He also need to look at his past, where down in 2004, Junior Bush, irrespective of all hue and cry about the Iraq War, came back to power. So, here is all the complications I put forward to you.